The Frontier Is Coming Home

Official Schedule Context

In 2022, the smallest model to clear 60 percent on MMLU had 540 billion parameters. Two years later

a 3.8 billion parameter model did the same thing, small enough to run on a phone. That is a 142x

drop to reach the same capability floor, and it is the cleanest way to see a trend most people are

not pricing in. Call it the lag: the time between a capability showing up at the frontier and that

capability running on hardware you own. Today the lag is measured in months, and it keeps shrinking.

But raw capability is only half of what makes a model useful. A model that can reason but cannot

remember is a stranger every time you talk to it. The other half of local AI is memory, and that

half is already here. On-device retrieval has been ready to run locally longer than the models have.

The embedding models that power it are tiny, the indexes fit in memory, and none of it touches a

network. When your reasoning and your memory both live on your machine, so does your context. Your

history, your documents, your past conversations never leave the device. That is the part of this

shift that matters most, and the part people overlook because they are busy watching the models. The

same shift flips the economics. At 200 dollars a month per seat, a local machine starts to pay for

itself in under two years, and the frontier labs' own published usage numbers put heavy coding in

the same range. I'll walk through the math, the hardware, and where local still loses. None of this

is a bet against scale, or against the Bitter Lesson. The frontier still grows in the data center.

The point is that a usable copy keeps arriving on your desk, on a lag, with a memory of its own, for

close to free.

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